
Our Line vs Vegas
Every week we compare our projected spread to the market. A 3+ point gap gets flagged.
NFL: 4 games 3+ points off the market
26 market lines captured from ESPN (lines_history/nfl_2026-10-29_2311.json).
NFL: how each line is built
Our line = Base line (Power ratings + home field) + adjustments. "DET +1.5" means that adjustment moves 1.5 points toward Detroit. Only adjustments that improved our 2016-2024 backtest carry points; the others show as flags at 0. Kickoffs in ET.
| Game | Base line | QB | Form | YPP | Spot | Travel/Rest | Our line | Market | Edge | Flags (0 pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars @ Ravens Thu Nov 5 8:15 PM ET | Jaguars -4.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Jaguars -4.6 | BAL -3 | 7.6 Jaguars | QB flag: Lamar Jackson Questionable (not applied: only Out/Doubtful/IR count) |
| Eagles @ Commanders Sun Nov 1 8:20 PM ET | Eagles -1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Eagles -1.5 | WSH -6 | 7.5 Eagles | Washington Commanders: extra rest (13 days, off a bye) |
| Cowboys @ Colts Sun Nov 8 1:00 PM ET | Colts -1.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Colts -1.9 | DAL -4.5 | 6.4 Colts | Dallas Cowboys: crosses 1 time zone |
| Titans @ Bengals Sun Nov 1 1:00 PM ET | Bengals -5.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Bengals -5.8 | CIN -11.5 | 5.7 Titans | — |
| Colts @ Jaguars Sun Nov 1 1:00 PM ET | Jaguars -5.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Jaguars -5.3 | JAX -10 | 4.7 Colts | Jacksonville Jaguars: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Indianapolis Colts: back-to-back road games |
| Buccaneers @ Bears Sun Nov 8 8:20 PM ET | Bears -2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Bears -2.1 | CHI -6 | 3.9 Buccaneers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers: crosses 1 time zone |
| Cardinals @ Cowboys Sun Nov 1 1:00 PM ET | Cowboys -3.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Cowboys -3.3 | DAL -7 | 3.7 Cardinals | Arizona Cardinals: crosses 1 time zone |
| Vikings @ Lions Sun Nov 1 1:00 PM ET | Lions -0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Lions -0.1 | DET -3 | 2.9 Vikings | Minnesota Vikings: crosses 1 time zone |
| Bills @ Vikings Mon Nov 9 8:15 PM ET | Bills -0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Bills -0.1 | BUF -2.5 | 2.4 Vikings | Buffalo Bills: crosses 1 time zone |
| Giants @ Eagles Sun Nov 8 1:00 PM ET | Eagles -0.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Eagles -0.8 | NYG -1.5 | 2.3 Eagles | New York Giants: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); New York Giants: letdown spot (beat Houston Texans (top-10 Power) last game); New York Giants: back-to-back road games |
| Jets @ Chiefs Sun Nov 8 1:00 PM ET | Chiefs -7.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Chiefs -7.3 | KC -9.5 | 2.2 Jets | New York Jets: crosses 1 time zone |
| Browns @ Saints Sun Nov 8 1:00 PM ET | Saints -0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Saints -0.6 | NO -2.5 | 1.9 Browns | New Orleans Saints: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Cleveland Browns: lookahead spot (weak opponent now, top-10 Houston Texans next); Cleveland Browns: crosses 1 time zone |
| Bears @ Seahawks Mon Nov 2 8:15 PM ET | Seahawks -4.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Seahawks -4.7 | SEA -3 | 1.7 Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks: other QB listed: Drew Lock Questionable (ESPN 2026-10-30T01:03Z), 0; Seattle Seahawks: letdown spot (beat Kansas City Chiefs (top-10 Power) last game); Chicago Bears: letdown spot (beat New England Patriots (top-10 Power) last game); Chicago Bears: crosses 2 time zones |
| Chiefs @ Broncos Sun Nov 1 4:25 PM ET | Broncos -0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Broncos -0.2 | KC -1.5 | 1.7 Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs: back-to-back road games; Kansas City Chiefs: crosses 1 time zone |
| Bengals vs Falcons Sun Nov 8 9:30 AM ET | Bengals -1.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Bengals -1.3 | CIN -3 | 1.7 Falcons | — |
| Raiders @ Jets Sun Nov 1 1:00 PM ET | Raiders -0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Raiders -0.1 | NYJ -1.5 | 1.6 Raiders | New York Jets: lookahead spot (weak opponent now, top-10 Kansas City Chiefs next); Las Vegas Raiders: lookahead spot (weak opponent now, top-10 San Francisco 49ers next); Las Vegas Raiders: 2,223-mile trip; Las Vegas Raiders: crosses 3 time zones; Las Vegas Raiders: West/Mountain team in 1:00 PM ET start |
| Lions @ Dolphins Sun Nov 8 1:00 PM ET | Lions -5.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Lions -5.5 | DET -7 | 1.5 Dolphins | Detroit Lions: lookahead spot (weak opponent now, top-10 New England Patriots next) |
| Rams @ Commanders Sun Nov 8 1:00 PM ET | Rams -6.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Rams -6.8 | LAR -5.5 | 1.3 Rams | Los Angeles Rams: 2,310-mile trip; Los Angeles Rams: crosses 3 time zones; Los Angeles Rams: West/Mountain team in 1:00 PM ET start |
| Raiders @ 49ers Sun Nov 8 4:25 PM ET | 49ers -8.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 49ers -8.4 | SF -9.5 | 1.1 Raiders | San Francisco 49ers: extra rest (14 days, off a bye) |
| Falcons @ Buccaneers Sun Nov 1 1:00 PM ET | Buccaneers -1.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Buccaneers -1.6 | TB -2.5 | 0.9 Falcons | Atlanta Falcons: letdown spot (beat San Francisco 49ers (top-10 Power) last game) |
| Browns @ Steelers Sun Nov 1 1:00 PM ET | Steelers -4.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Steelers -4.1 | PIT -3.5 | 0.6 Steelers | Cleveland Browns: back-to-back road games |
| Cardinals @ Seahawks Sun Nov 8 4:25 PM ET | Seahawks -9.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Seahawks -9.9 | SEA -10.5 | 0.6 Cardinals | Seattle Seahawks: other QB listed: Drew Lock Questionable (ESPN 2026-10-30T01:03Z), 0; Arizona Cardinals: crosses 1 time zone |
| Ravens @ Bills Sun Nov 1 1:00 PM ET | Bills -3.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Bills -3.5 | BUF -3 | 0.5 Bills | QB flag: Lamar Jackson Questionable (not applied: only Out/Doubtful/IR count); Buffalo Bills: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Baltimore Ravens: bounce spot (lost by 22 last game) |
| Texans @ Chargers Sun Nov 8 4:05 PM ET | Texans -3.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Texans -3.9 | HOU -3.5 | 0.4 Texans | Houston Texans: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Houston Texans: crosses 2 time zones |
| Chargers @ Rams Sun Nov 1 4:05 PM ET | Rams -6.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Rams -6.8 | LAR -6.5 | 0.3 Rams | Los Angeles Chargers: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Los Angeles Chargers: back-to-back road games |
| Patriots @ Dolphins Sun Nov 1 4:25 PM ET | Patriots -6.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Patriots -6.7 | NE -7 | 0.3 Dolphins | New England Patriots: back-to-back road games |
NFL: quarterback report
- Carolina Panthers: starter Bryce Young Active · other QBs: Haynes King Out (ESPN 2026-10-29T23:16Z) 0 pts · ESPN injuries 2026-10-26T00:07Z: Young completed 14 of 27 passes for 163 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions and added one carry for nine yards in th
- Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson Questionable (not applied: only Out/Doubtful/IR count) 0 pts · ESPN injuries 2026-10-29T20:55Z: Jackson (ankle) was a full participant at Thursday's practice, Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic reports.
- Seattle Seahawks: starter Sam Darnold Active · other QBs: Drew Lock Questionable (ESPN 2026-10-30T01:03Z) 0 pts · ESPN injuries 2026-10-26T03:52Z: Darnold completed 20 of 28 passes for 257 yards, one touchdown and one interception in Sunday's 20-3 win over the Chiefs. He ad
College: 31 games 3+ points off the market
65 market lines captured from ESPN (lines_history/cfb_2026-10-29_2311.json). College lines now use raw margins and run slightly wider than the market (slope about 1.1); there is no historical college odds data to test them against the spread.
College: how each line is built
Our line = Base line (Power ratings + home field) + adjustments. "DET +1.5" means that adjustment moves 1.5 points toward Detroit. Only adjustments that improved our 2016-2024 backtest carry points; the others show as flags at 0. Kickoffs in ET.
| Game | Base line | QB | Form | YPP | Spot | Travel/Rest | Our line | Market | Edge | Flags (0 pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Herd @ Monarchs Sat Oct 31 1:00 PM ET | Monarchs -9.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Monarchs -9.4 | MRSH -3 | 12.4 Monarchs | Marshall Thundering Herd: letdown spot (beat South Alabama Jaguars, an upset of a team rated 3+ pts higher last game) |
| Cowboys @ Cyclones Sat Oct 31 7:00 PM ET | Cyclones -1.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Cyclones -1.9 | OKST -9.5 | 11.4 Cyclones | Iowa State Cyclones: bounce spot (lost by 36 last game) |
| Flashes @ Hornets Fri Oct 30 10:30 PM ET | Hornets -3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Hornets -3.0 | KENT -7 | 10.0 Hornets | Kent State Golden Flashes: 2,117-mile trip; Kent State Golden Flashes: crosses 3 time zones; Kent State Golden Flashes: East team in late West kickoff (10:30 PM ET) |
| Blazers @ Bulls Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM ET | Bulls -17.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Bulls -17.4 | USF -7.5 | 9.9 Bulls | South Florida Bulls: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); UAB Blazers: extra rest (16 days, off a bye); UAB Blazers: letdown spot (beat East Carolina Pirates, an upset of a team rated 3+ pts higher last game) |
| Wolverines @ Knights Sat Oct 31 12:30 PM ET | Wolverines -6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Wolverines -6.5 | MICH -15.5 | 9.0 Knights | Rutgers Scarlet Knights: bounce spot (lost by 28 last game) |
| Jackets @ Panthers Sat Oct 31 7:30 PM ET | Panthers -16.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Panthers -16.3 | PITT -7.5 | 8.8 Panthers | Pittsburgh Panthers: bounce spot (lost by 29 last game) |
| Wildcats @ Buffaloes Sat Oct 31 2:00 PM ET | Wildcats -6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Wildcats -6.5 | COLO -1.5 | 8.0 Wildcats | Colorado Buffaloes: bounce spot (lost by 33 last game); Kansas State Wildcats: back-to-back road games; Kansas State Wildcats: crosses 1 time zone |
| Wildcats @ Ducks Sat Oct 31 3:30 PM ET | Ducks -11.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Ducks -11.2 | ORE -3.5 | 7.7 Ducks | Northwestern Wildcats: crosses 2 time zones |
| Bulldogs @ Longhorns Sat Oct 31 7:30 PM ET | Longhorns -13.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Longhorns -13.0 | TEX -20.5 | 7.5 Bulldogs | — |
| Wave @ 49ers Fri Oct 30 7:00 PM ET | Wave -15.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Wave -15.9 | TULN -8.5 | 7.4 Wave | Charlotte 49ers: extra rest (13 days, off a bye); Charlotte 49ers: letdown spot (beat Temple Owls, an upset of a team rated 3+ pts higher last game); Tulane Green Wave: crosses 1 time zone |
| Pack @ Bruins Sat Oct 31 4:15 PM ET | Bruins -29.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Bruins -29.9 | UCLA -22.5 | 7.4 Bruins | — |
| Mustangs @ Orange Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM ET | Mustangs -3.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Mustangs -3.3 | SMU -10.5 | 7.2 Orange | SMU Mustangs: crosses 1 time zone |
| Beavers @ Bulldogs Sat Oct 31 11:00 PM ET | Bulldogs -1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Bulldogs -1.0 | ORST -6 | 7.0 Bulldogs | Fresno State Bulldogs: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Oregon State Beavers: extra rest (14 days, off a bye) |
| Falcons @ Broncos Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM ET | Broncos -20.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Broncos -20.4 | WMU -13.5 | 6.9 Broncos | Bowling Green Falcons: back-to-back road games |
| Eagles @ Devils Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM ET | Devils -13.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Devils -13.6 | DUKE -7 | 6.6 Devils | Boston College Eagles: back-to-back road games |
| Bears @ Knights Fri Oct 30 7:30 PM ET | Knights -4.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Knights -4.8 | BAY -1.5 | 6.3 Knights | UCF Knights: letdown spot (beat BYU Cougars, an upset of a team rated 3+ pts higher last game); Baylor Bears: back-to-back road games; Baylor Bears: crosses 1 time zone |
| Bears @ Wolfpack Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM ET | Wolfpack -12.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Wolfpack -12.5 | NCSU -7 | 5.5 Wolfpack | California Golden Bears: bounce spot (lost by 39 last game); California Golden Bears: back-to-back road games; California Golden Bears: 2,396-mile trip; California Golden Bears: crosses 3 time zones; California Golden Bears: West/Mountain team in 12:00 PM ET start |
| Falcons @ Knights Sat Nov 7 7:30 PM ET | Knights -10.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Knights -10.9 | ARMY -5.5 | 5.4 Knights | — |
| Badgers @ Hawkeyes Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM ET | Hawkeyes -7.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Hawkeyes -7.4 | IOWA -2.5 | 4.9 Hawkeyes | — |
| Chanticleers @ Panthers Sat Oct 31 2:00 PM ET | Panthers -10.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Panthers -10.4 | GAST -5.5 | 4.9 Panthers | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers: extra rest (15 days, off a bye) |
| Wildcats @ Volunteers Sat Nov 7 6:15 PM ET | Volunteers -10.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Volunteers -10.1 | TENN -5.5 | 4.6 Volunteers | Tennessee Volunteers: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Kentucky Wildcats: extra rest (14 days, off a bye) |
| Frogs @ Raiders Thu Nov 26 8:00 PM ET | Raiders -12.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Raiders -12.0 | TTU -16.5 | 4.5 Frogs | TCU Horned Frogs: crosses 1 time zone |
| Owls @ Pirates Sat Oct 31 3:00 PM ET | Pirates -8.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pirates -8.9 | ECU -4.5 | 4.4 Pirates | Temple Owls: extra rest (14 days, off a bye) |
| Huskies @ Cornhuskers Sat Oct 31 8:00 PM ET | Cornhuskers -11.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Cornhuskers -11.7 | NEB -7.5 | 4.2 Cornhuskers | Nebraska Cornhuskers: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Washington Huskies: extra rest (15 days, off a bye); Washington Huskies: back-to-back road games; Washington Huskies: crosses 2 time zones |
| Tigers @ Seminoles Sat Oct 31 7:00 PM ET | Seminoles -10.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Seminoles -10.0 | FSU -6 | 4.0 Seminoles | Florida State Seminoles: extra rest (14 days, off a bye) |
| Boilermakers @ Lions Sat Oct 31 4:15 PM ET | Lions -13.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Lions -13.8 | PSU -10 | 3.8 Lions | Penn State Nittany Lions: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Purdue Boilermakers: extra rest (15 days, off a bye) |
| Cougars @ Utes Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM ET | Utes -6.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Utes -6.8 | UTAH -3 | 3.8 Utes | — |
| Tigers @ Razorbacks Sat Oct 31 7:45 PM ET | Tigers -6.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tigers -6.3 | MIZ -10 | 3.7 Razorbacks | Arkansas Razorbacks: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Missouri Tigers: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Missouri Tigers: bounce spot (lost by 28 last game); Missouri Tigers: back-to-back road games |
| Gophers @ Hoosiers Sat Oct 31 3:30 PM ET | Hoosiers -24.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Hoosiers -24.2 | IU -20.5 | 3.7 Hoosiers | Minnesota Golden Gophers: letdown spot (beat Iowa Hawkeyes, an upset of a team rated 3+ pts higher last game); Minnesota Golden Gophers: crosses 1 time zone |
| Miners @ Bison Sat Oct 31 3:30 PM ET | Bison -28.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Bison -28.2 | NDSU -24.5 | 3.7 Bison | UTEP Miners: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); UTEP Miners: crosses 1 time zone |
| Gamecocks @ Sooners Sat Oct 31 4:15 PM ET | Sooners -7.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Sooners -7.1 | OU -3.5 | 3.6 Sooners | South Carolina Gamecocks: letdown spot (beat Tennessee Volunteers, an upset of a team rated 3+ pts higher last game); South Carolina Gamecocks: crosses 1 time zone |
| Eagles @ Warhawks Sat Oct 31 3:30 PM ET | Eagles -6.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Eagles -6.9 | USM -3.5 | 3.4 Eagles | UL Monroe Warhawks: letdown spot (beat Troy Trojans, an upset of a team rated 3+ pts higher last game); Southern Miss Golden Eagles: letdown spot (beat Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns, an upset of a team rated 3+ pts higher last game) |
| Buckeyes @ Trojans Sat Oct 31 7:30 PM ET | Buckeyes -9.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Buckeyes -9.8 | OSU -6.5 | 3.3 Buckeyes | Ohio State Buckeyes: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Ohio State Buckeyes: letdown spot (beat Indiana Hoosiers (top-10 Power) last game); Ohio State Buckeyes: back-to-back road games; Ohio State Buckeyes: crosses 3 time zones |
| Hurricanes @ Heels Sat Oct 31 7:30 PM ET | Hurricanes -17.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Hurricanes -17.2 | MIA -14 | 3.2 Hurricanes | — |
| Wildcats @ Raiders Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM ET | Raiders -6.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Raiders -6.5 | TTU -3.5 | 3.0 Raiders | — |