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Sideline MathOur Line vs VegasThe numbers, by a math teacher. No polls.

Our Line vs Vegas

Every week we compare our projected spread to the market. A 3+ point gap gets flagged.

NFL: 4 games 3+ points off the market

26 market lines captured from ESPN (lines_history/nfl_2026-10-29_2311.json).

NFL · Sun Nov 1, 8:20 PM ET
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
Vegas (DraftKings)WSH -6
Our lineEagles -1.5
Gap7.5 pts
NFL · Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas (DraftKings)CIN -11.5
Our lineBengals -5.8
Gap5.7 pts
NFL · Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Vegas (DraftKings)JAX -10
Our lineJaguars -5.3
Gap4.7 pts
NFL · Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
Vegas (DraftKings)DAL -7
Our lineCowboys -3.3
Gap3.7 pts

NFL: how each line is built

Our line = Base line (Power ratings + home field) + adjustments. "DET +1.5" means that adjustment moves 1.5 points toward Detroit. Only adjustments that improved our 2016-2024 backtest carry points; the others show as flags at 0. Kickoffs in ET.

GameBase lineQBFormYPPSpotTravel/RestOur lineMarketEdgeFlags (0 pts)
Jaguars @ Ravens
Thu Nov 5 8:15 PM ET
Jaguars -4.600000Jaguars -4.6BAL -37.6 JaguarsQB flag: Lamar Jackson Questionable (not applied: only Out/Doubtful/IR count)
Eagles @ Commanders
Sun Nov 1 8:20 PM ET
Eagles -1.500000Eagles -1.5WSH -67.5 EaglesWashington Commanders: extra rest (13 days, off a bye)
Cowboys @ Colts
Sun Nov 8 1:00 PM ET
Colts -1.900000Colts -1.9DAL -4.56.4 ColtsDallas Cowboys: crosses 1 time zone
Titans @ Bengals
Sun Nov 1 1:00 PM ET
Bengals -5.800000Bengals -5.8CIN -11.55.7 Titans—
Colts @ Jaguars
Sun Nov 1 1:00 PM ET
Jaguars -5.300000Jaguars -5.3JAX -104.7 ColtsJacksonville Jaguars: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Indianapolis Colts: back-to-back road games
Buccaneers @ Bears
Sun Nov 8 8:20 PM ET
Bears -2.100000Bears -2.1CHI -63.9 BuccaneersTampa Bay Buccaneers: crosses 1 time zone
Cardinals @ Cowboys
Sun Nov 1 1:00 PM ET
Cowboys -3.300000Cowboys -3.3DAL -73.7 CardinalsArizona Cardinals: crosses 1 time zone
Vikings @ Lions
Sun Nov 1 1:00 PM ET
Lions -0.100000Lions -0.1DET -32.9 VikingsMinnesota Vikings: crosses 1 time zone
Bills @ Vikings
Mon Nov 9 8:15 PM ET
Bills -0.100000Bills -0.1BUF -2.52.4 VikingsBuffalo Bills: crosses 1 time zone
Giants @ Eagles
Sun Nov 8 1:00 PM ET
Eagles -0.800000Eagles -0.8NYG -1.52.3 EaglesNew York Giants: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); New York Giants: letdown spot (beat Houston Texans (top-10 Power) last game); New York Giants: back-to-back road games
Jets @ Chiefs
Sun Nov 8 1:00 PM ET
Chiefs -7.300000Chiefs -7.3KC -9.52.2 JetsNew York Jets: crosses 1 time zone
Browns @ Saints
Sun Nov 8 1:00 PM ET
Saints -0.600000Saints -0.6NO -2.51.9 BrownsNew Orleans Saints: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Cleveland Browns: lookahead spot (weak opponent now, top-10 Houston Texans next); Cleveland Browns: crosses 1 time zone
Bears @ Seahawks
Mon Nov 2 8:15 PM ET
Seahawks -4.700000Seahawks -4.7SEA -31.7 SeahawksSeattle Seahawks: other QB listed: Drew Lock Questionable (ESPN 2026-10-30T01:03Z), 0; Seattle Seahawks: letdown spot (beat Kansas City Chiefs (top-10 Power) last game); Chicago Bears: letdown spot (beat New England Patriots (top-10 Power) last game); Chicago Bears: crosses 2 time zones
Chiefs @ Broncos
Sun Nov 1 4:25 PM ET
Broncos -0.200000Broncos -0.2KC -1.51.7 BroncosKansas City Chiefs: back-to-back road games; Kansas City Chiefs: crosses 1 time zone
Bengals vs Falcons
Sun Nov 8 9:30 AM ET
Bengals -1.300000Bengals -1.3CIN -31.7 Falcons—
Raiders @ Jets
Sun Nov 1 1:00 PM ET
Raiders -0.100000Raiders -0.1NYJ -1.51.6 RaidersNew York Jets: lookahead spot (weak opponent now, top-10 Kansas City Chiefs next); Las Vegas Raiders: lookahead spot (weak opponent now, top-10 San Francisco 49ers next); Las Vegas Raiders: 2,223-mile trip; Las Vegas Raiders: crosses 3 time zones; Las Vegas Raiders: West/Mountain team in 1:00 PM ET start
Lions @ Dolphins
Sun Nov 8 1:00 PM ET
Lions -5.500000Lions -5.5DET -71.5 DolphinsDetroit Lions: lookahead spot (weak opponent now, top-10 New England Patriots next)
Rams @ Commanders
Sun Nov 8 1:00 PM ET
Rams -6.800000Rams -6.8LAR -5.51.3 RamsLos Angeles Rams: 2,310-mile trip; Los Angeles Rams: crosses 3 time zones; Los Angeles Rams: West/Mountain team in 1:00 PM ET start
Raiders @ 49ers
Sun Nov 8 4:25 PM ET
49ers -8.40000049ers -8.4SF -9.51.1 RaidersSan Francisco 49ers: extra rest (14 days, off a bye)
Falcons @ Buccaneers
Sun Nov 1 1:00 PM ET
Buccaneers -1.600000Buccaneers -1.6TB -2.50.9 FalconsAtlanta Falcons: letdown spot (beat San Francisco 49ers (top-10 Power) last game)
Browns @ Steelers
Sun Nov 1 1:00 PM ET
Steelers -4.100000Steelers -4.1PIT -3.50.6 SteelersCleveland Browns: back-to-back road games
Cardinals @ Seahawks
Sun Nov 8 4:25 PM ET
Seahawks -9.900000Seahawks -9.9SEA -10.50.6 CardinalsSeattle Seahawks: other QB listed: Drew Lock Questionable (ESPN 2026-10-30T01:03Z), 0; Arizona Cardinals: crosses 1 time zone
Ravens @ Bills
Sun Nov 1 1:00 PM ET
Bills -3.500000Bills -3.5BUF -30.5 BillsQB flag: Lamar Jackson Questionable (not applied: only Out/Doubtful/IR count); Buffalo Bills: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Baltimore Ravens: bounce spot (lost by 22 last game)
Texans @ Chargers
Sun Nov 8 4:05 PM ET
Texans -3.900000Texans -3.9HOU -3.50.4 TexansHouston Texans: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Houston Texans: crosses 2 time zones
Chargers @ Rams
Sun Nov 1 4:05 PM ET
Rams -6.800000Rams -6.8LAR -6.50.3 RamsLos Angeles Chargers: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Los Angeles Chargers: back-to-back road games
Patriots @ Dolphins
Sun Nov 1 4:25 PM ET
Patriots -6.700000Patriots -6.7NE -70.3 DolphinsNew England Patriots: back-to-back road games

NFL: quarterback report

College: 31 games 3+ points off the market

65 market lines captured from ESPN (lines_history/cfb_2026-10-29_2311.json). College lines now use raw margins and run slightly wider than the market (slope about 1.1); there is no historical college odds data to test them against the spread.

CFB · Sat Oct 31, 1:00 PM ET
Marshall Thundering Herd at Old Dominion Monarchs
Vegas (DraftKings)MRSH -3
Our lineMonarchs -9.4
Gap12.4 pts
CFB · Sat Oct 31, 7:00 PM ET
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones
Vegas (DraftKings)OKST -9.5
Our lineCyclones -1.9
Gap11.4 pts
CFB · Fri Oct 30, 10:30 PM ET
Kent State Golden Flashes at Sacramento State Hornets
Vegas (DraftKings)KENT -7
Our lineHornets -3.0
Gap10.0 pts
CFB · Sat Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET
UAB Blazers at South Florida Bulls
Vegas (DraftKings)USF -7.5
Our lineBulls -17.4
Gap9.9 pts
CFB · Sat Oct 31, 12:30 PM ET
Michigan Wolverines at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Vegas (DraftKings)MICH -15.5
Our lineWolverines -6.5
Gap9.0 pts
CFB · Sat Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Pittsburgh Panthers
Vegas (DraftKings)PITT -7.5
Our linePanthers -16.3
Gap8.8 pts
CFB · Sat Oct 31, 2:00 PM ET
Kansas State Wildcats at Colorado Buffaloes
Vegas (DraftKings)COLO -1.5
Our lineWildcats -6.5
Gap8.0 pts
CFB · Sat Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET
Northwestern Wildcats at Oregon Ducks
Vegas (DraftKings)ORE -3.5
Our lineDucks -11.2
Gap7.7 pts
CFB · Sat Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas Longhorns
Vegas (DraftKings)TEX -20.5
Our lineLonghorns -13.0
Gap7.5 pts
CFB · Fri Oct 30, 7:00 PM ET
Tulane Green Wave at Charlotte 49ers
Vegas (DraftKings)TULN -8.5
Our lineWave -15.9
Gap7.4 pts
CFB · Sat Oct 31, 4:15 PM ET
Nevada Wolf Pack at UCLA Bruins
Vegas (DraftKings)UCLA -22.5
Our lineBruins -29.9
Gap7.4 pts
CFB · Sat Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET
SMU Mustangs at Syracuse Orange
Vegas (DraftKings)SMU -10.5
Our lineMustangs -3.3
Gap7.2 pts

College: how each line is built

Our line = Base line (Power ratings + home field) + adjustments. "DET +1.5" means that adjustment moves 1.5 points toward Detroit. Only adjustments that improved our 2016-2024 backtest carry points; the others show as flags at 0. Kickoffs in ET.

GameBase lineQBFormYPPSpotTravel/RestOur lineMarketEdgeFlags (0 pts)
Herd @ Monarchs
Sat Oct 31 1:00 PM ET
Monarchs -9.400000Monarchs -9.4MRSH -312.4 MonarchsMarshall Thundering Herd: letdown spot (beat South Alabama Jaguars, an upset of a team rated 3+ pts higher last game)
Cowboys @ Cyclones
Sat Oct 31 7:00 PM ET
Cyclones -1.900000Cyclones -1.9OKST -9.511.4 CyclonesIowa State Cyclones: bounce spot (lost by 36 last game)
Flashes @ Hornets
Fri Oct 30 10:30 PM ET
Hornets -3.000000Hornets -3.0KENT -710.0 HornetsKent State Golden Flashes: 2,117-mile trip; Kent State Golden Flashes: crosses 3 time zones; Kent State Golden Flashes: East team in late West kickoff (10:30 PM ET)
Blazers @ Bulls
Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM ET
Bulls -17.400000Bulls -17.4USF -7.59.9 BullsSouth Florida Bulls: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); UAB Blazers: extra rest (16 days, off a bye); UAB Blazers: letdown spot (beat East Carolina Pirates, an upset of a team rated 3+ pts higher last game)
Wolverines @ Knights
Sat Oct 31 12:30 PM ET
Wolverines -6.500000Wolverines -6.5MICH -15.59.0 KnightsRutgers Scarlet Knights: bounce spot (lost by 28 last game)
Jackets @ Panthers
Sat Oct 31 7:30 PM ET
Panthers -16.300000Panthers -16.3PITT -7.58.8 PanthersPittsburgh Panthers: bounce spot (lost by 29 last game)
Wildcats @ Buffaloes
Sat Oct 31 2:00 PM ET
Wildcats -6.500000Wildcats -6.5COLO -1.58.0 WildcatsColorado Buffaloes: bounce spot (lost by 33 last game); Kansas State Wildcats: back-to-back road games; Kansas State Wildcats: crosses 1 time zone
Wildcats @ Ducks
Sat Oct 31 3:30 PM ET
Ducks -11.200000Ducks -11.2ORE -3.57.7 DucksNorthwestern Wildcats: crosses 2 time zones
Bulldogs @ Longhorns
Sat Oct 31 7:30 PM ET
Longhorns -13.000000Longhorns -13.0TEX -20.57.5 Bulldogs—
Wave @ 49ers
Fri Oct 30 7:00 PM ET
Wave -15.900000Wave -15.9TULN -8.57.4 WaveCharlotte 49ers: extra rest (13 days, off a bye); Charlotte 49ers: letdown spot (beat Temple Owls, an upset of a team rated 3+ pts higher last game); Tulane Green Wave: crosses 1 time zone
Pack @ Bruins
Sat Oct 31 4:15 PM ET
Bruins -29.900000Bruins -29.9UCLA -22.57.4 Bruins—
Mustangs @ Orange
Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM ET
Mustangs -3.300000Mustangs -3.3SMU -10.57.2 OrangeSMU Mustangs: crosses 1 time zone
Beavers @ Bulldogs
Sat Oct 31 11:00 PM ET
Bulldogs -1.000000Bulldogs -1.0ORST -67.0 BulldogsFresno State Bulldogs: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Oregon State Beavers: extra rest (14 days, off a bye)
Falcons @ Broncos
Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM ET
Broncos -20.400000Broncos -20.4WMU -13.56.9 BroncosBowling Green Falcons: back-to-back road games
Eagles @ Devils
Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM ET
Devils -13.600000Devils -13.6DUKE -76.6 DevilsBoston College Eagles: back-to-back road games
Bears @ Knights
Fri Oct 30 7:30 PM ET
Knights -4.800000Knights -4.8BAY -1.56.3 KnightsUCF Knights: letdown spot (beat BYU Cougars, an upset of a team rated 3+ pts higher last game); Baylor Bears: back-to-back road games; Baylor Bears: crosses 1 time zone
Bears @ Wolfpack
Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM ET
Wolfpack -12.500000Wolfpack -12.5NCSU -75.5 WolfpackCalifornia Golden Bears: bounce spot (lost by 39 last game); California Golden Bears: back-to-back road games; California Golden Bears: 2,396-mile trip; California Golden Bears: crosses 3 time zones; California Golden Bears: West/Mountain team in 12:00 PM ET start
Falcons @ Knights
Sat Nov 7 7:30 PM ET
Knights -10.900000Knights -10.9ARMY -5.55.4 Knights—
Badgers @ Hawkeyes
Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM ET
Hawkeyes -7.400000Hawkeyes -7.4IOWA -2.54.9 Hawkeyes—
Chanticleers @ Panthers
Sat Oct 31 2:00 PM ET
Panthers -10.400000Panthers -10.4GAST -5.54.9 PanthersCoastal Carolina Chanticleers: extra rest (15 days, off a bye)
Wildcats @ Volunteers
Sat Nov 7 6:15 PM ET
Volunteers -10.100000Volunteers -10.1TENN -5.54.6 VolunteersTennessee Volunteers: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Kentucky Wildcats: extra rest (14 days, off a bye)
Frogs @ Raiders
Thu Nov 26 8:00 PM ET
Raiders -12.000000Raiders -12.0TTU -16.54.5 FrogsTCU Horned Frogs: crosses 1 time zone
Owls @ Pirates
Sat Oct 31 3:00 PM ET
Pirates -8.900000Pirates -8.9ECU -4.54.4 PiratesTemple Owls: extra rest (14 days, off a bye)
Huskies @ Cornhuskers
Sat Oct 31 8:00 PM ET
Cornhuskers -11.700000Cornhuskers -11.7NEB -7.54.2 CornhuskersNebraska Cornhuskers: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Washington Huskies: extra rest (15 days, off a bye); Washington Huskies: back-to-back road games; Washington Huskies: crosses 2 time zones
Tigers @ Seminoles
Sat Oct 31 7:00 PM ET
Seminoles -10.000000Seminoles -10.0FSU -64.0 SeminolesFlorida State Seminoles: extra rest (14 days, off a bye)
Boilermakers @ Lions
Sat Oct 31 4:15 PM ET
Lions -13.800000Lions -13.8PSU -103.8 LionsPenn State Nittany Lions: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Purdue Boilermakers: extra rest (15 days, off a bye)
Cougars @ Utes
Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM ET
Utes -6.800000Utes -6.8UTAH -33.8 Utes—
Tigers @ Razorbacks
Sat Oct 31 7:45 PM ET
Tigers -6.300000Tigers -6.3MIZ -103.7 RazorbacksArkansas Razorbacks: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Missouri Tigers: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Missouri Tigers: bounce spot (lost by 28 last game); Missouri Tigers: back-to-back road games
Gophers @ Hoosiers
Sat Oct 31 3:30 PM ET
Hoosiers -24.200000Hoosiers -24.2IU -20.53.7 HoosiersMinnesota Golden Gophers: letdown spot (beat Iowa Hawkeyes, an upset of a team rated 3+ pts higher last game); Minnesota Golden Gophers: crosses 1 time zone
Miners @ Bison
Sat Oct 31 3:30 PM ET
Bison -28.200000Bison -28.2NDSU -24.53.7 BisonUTEP Miners: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); UTEP Miners: crosses 1 time zone
Gamecocks @ Sooners
Sat Oct 31 4:15 PM ET
Sooners -7.100000Sooners -7.1OU -3.53.6 SoonersSouth Carolina Gamecocks: letdown spot (beat Tennessee Volunteers, an upset of a team rated 3+ pts higher last game); South Carolina Gamecocks: crosses 1 time zone
Eagles @ Warhawks
Sat Oct 31 3:30 PM ET
Eagles -6.900000Eagles -6.9USM -3.53.4 EaglesUL Monroe Warhawks: letdown spot (beat Troy Trojans, an upset of a team rated 3+ pts higher last game); Southern Miss Golden Eagles: letdown spot (beat Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns, an upset of a team rated 3+ pts higher last game)
Buckeyes @ Trojans
Sat Oct 31 7:30 PM ET
Buckeyes -9.800000Buckeyes -9.8OSU -6.53.3 BuckeyesOhio State Buckeyes: extra rest (14 days, off a bye); Ohio State Buckeyes: letdown spot (beat Indiana Hoosiers (top-10 Power) last game); Ohio State Buckeyes: back-to-back road games; Ohio State Buckeyes: crosses 3 time zones
Hurricanes @ Heels
Sat Oct 31 7:30 PM ET
Hurricanes -17.200000Hurricanes -17.2MIA -143.2 Hurricanes—
Wildcats @ Raiders
Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM ET
Raiders -6.500000Raiders -6.5TTU -3.53.0 Raiders—

College: quarterback report

No starting quarterback is listed on the ESPN injury report.

Graded history

Graded history starts after this weekend. Each Tuesday we grade our line against the result and against the closing line.